UFC 303 Predictions

With UFC 303 later today, here are my predictions for the card.

PRELIMS

Ricky Simón(20-5) v Vinicius Oliveira(20-3)

This is a fantastic fight to kick off the card. Ricky Simón has had a good career In the UFC so far but is coming into this fight with two losses against Song Yadong and Mario Bautista. He will look to get back to winning ways in this one against a new prospect for the division in Vinicius Oliveira. Oliveira has had one fight in the UFC after getting a contract last year on the Contender Series. In the fight, he won by one of the most vicious flying knee knockouts you will see. This is quite the step up for a second opponent in the UFC for Oliveira. The smart pick is probably Simón, as he’s the more experienced fighter in the UFC and will be looking for the win, but I feel we can see an underdog pic in Oliveira by knockout.

Prediction: Oliveira by KO R3

Carlos Hernandez(9-3) v Rei Tsuruya(9-0)

This fight feels like a fairly simple pick with Tsuruya. He is coming off winning the Road to UFC flyweight tournament and will look to get his first UFC win against an alright fighter in Carlos Hernandez. Hernandez is 2-2 in the UFC, but his losses are to Tasturo Taira, who is not a bad opponent to lose to and Allan Nascimento, who has looked good in his fights in the UFC. He could shock Tsuruya but I feel the answer for this one is Tsuruya.

Prediction: Tsuruya by Sub R2

Andrei Arlovski(34-23) v Martin Buday(13-2)

Andrei Arlovski is a legend of the sport but really hasn’t done much for a while. He is still capable of beating lower-level fighters, but his last finish was nearly ten years ago. Buday is coming in off his only loss in the UFC against Shamil Gaziev. He will look to rebound in this one, and I feel like he will be able to control Arlovski either against the cage or if he gets Arlovski down.

Prediction: Buday by Dec

Michelle Waterson(18-12) v Gillian Robertson(13-8)

This is another one that feels like there’s an obvious answer here. Waterson has lost her last four fights and is probably near the end of her career. Robertson has a really good ground game with the most submissions in UFC women’s history. It feels like a safe and simple pick with Robertson by sub.

Prediction: Robertson by Sub R2

Payton Talbott(8-0) v Yanis Ghemmouri(12-2)

I did a fight study on Payton Talbott that you can read here: https://fightstudy.substack.com/p/fight-study-payton-talbott

This should be an easy one for Talbott to continue his good form with a win against an opponent who hasn’t won in the UFC yet. I feel Talbott will find his rhythm early in this fight and will get a finish.

Prediction: Talbott by KO R2

Charles Jourdain(15-7-1) v Jean Silva(12-2)

Charles Jourdain is a good fighter who, on his day, can compete with some high-level opponents. Jean Silva missed weight for this one, so this will be at catchweight, which makes me feel he’s had a tough weight cut. I favour Jourdain, especially after Silva’s weight miss, as I feel it will spur Jourdain on.

Prediction: Jourdain by Dec

Cub Swanson(29-13) v Andre Fili(23-11)

This should be a fun scrap between two UFC vets. Swanson is a fun fighter who, even at 40 years old, is still as game as they come. Andre Fili has grown in front of our eyes in the UFC. He's been with the UFC for 11 years, which, for someone who is only 34, shows how good he has been. Fili lost his last one by KO against Dan Ige in round 1, so he will look to return to winning ways in this one. Swanson beat Hakeem Dawodu in his last one, which is a very impressive win, especially this late in his career. Most people will choose Fili in this one as he’s the younger fighter and has the height and reach advantage, but I feel Swanson might shock Fili in this one.

Prediction: Swanson by Dec

Joe Pyfer(12-3) v Marc-André Barriault(16-7)

This is the featured prelim before the main card. Pyfer just went five rounds with Jack Hermansson, which he lost. He will look to get back to winning in this one against Barriault, who is a solid enough fighter who will beat you if you allow him to. I feel Pyfer will get back to winning ways in this one with a finish, as he will hopefully improve on his last performance and not be as reliant on power punches and show off his all-around skills.

Prediction: Pyfer by KO R2

MAIN CARD

Ian Machado Garry(14-0) v Michael Page(22-2)

This is a great fight to kick off the Main Card. Garry is a rising star, and even though he can be cringy at times, I believe he is a really talented fighter who seems to improve every fight. His opponent MVP won his first fight in the UFC against Kevin Holland and is someone who most fans have known about for years while he was in Bellator. I think Garry will win as I see him fighting smart and not letting Page dictate the fight, and potentially showing off some grappling to offset Page’s striking.

Prediction: Garry by Dec

Mayra Bueno Silva(10-3-1) v Macy Chiasson(9-3)

This fight is higher than I would have put it on the card, but maybe it might surprise me with how it goes. Silva just fought for the title in a losing effort to Raquel Pennington. Chiasson won her last one by submission against Pannie Kianzad. I feel that Silva is better than Chiasson. Silva has a good ground game, which I see her utilising in this one.

Prediction: Bueno Silva by Sub R2

Anthony Smith(37-19) v Roman Dolidze(12-3)

This is the funniest fight on the card as this was originally meant to be Jamahal Hill v Khalil Rountree Jr, but due to multiple pullouts, this is the fight we are left with. Smith is a vet of the light heavyweight division and can still compete with the top 15 of the division. Dolidze is a middleweight but is taking this fight up a weight class, which, after two losses at middleweight, may not be the smartest decision. The smart pick is Smith, but I’m picking Dolidze as an underdog purely because I think he will turn it around in this fight up a weight class.

Prediction: Dolidze by Dec

Brian Ortega(16-3) v Diego Lopes(24-6)

This will be a fun one, with a new star in Lopes and a main star of the featherweight division in Ortega. However, this fight is taking place at 155 after Ortega asked for the weight to be changed, which will be annoying for Lopes. I feel like this will be Lopes's breakout fight as I think with a win against Ortega, depending on how dominant a win, he may shoot himself into title contention or into the picture.

Prediction: Lopes by KO R2

Alex Pereira(10-2) (C) v Jiří Procházka(30-4-1)

This fight was made late, as McGregor pulled out of the original main event against Michael Chandler. Pereira is a former Middleweight champion in the UFC and won the Light Heavyweight title in his second fight in the division against the man he faces in this one, Procházka. Procházka is a wacky fighter whose style causes many issues for his opponent. He does a lot of cool stuff in his fights that you would be surprised to see him do sometimes. I feel that this fight will be similar to the first fight, with Pereira getting the finish early as his power is some of the craziest we have ever seen in MMA. Procházka can easily shock me, but with this being late notice for both, I feel there hasn’t been enough time for Procházka to prepare for this fight.

Prediction: Pereira by KO R2

These are my predictions for UFC 303.

Last week, I got 9/11 of my predictions correct, which was a solid week, and let’s hope I beat it this week.