UFC 305 Predictions

It’s UFC 305 time, so here are my predictions.

PRELIMS:

Stewart Nicoll(8-0) V Jesus Aguilar(10-2)

Nice bit of flyweight action kicks off the card. Jesus Aguilar is on a two-fight win streak with a fantastic 17-second KO of Shannon Ross and a decision win against Mateus Mendonça. He’s got power, but his main skill is his guillotine choke, with five of his six submission wins coming by way of guillotine. He faces a new face to the division in Stewart Nicoll. Nicoll is one of the hottest prospects coming out of Australia and is getting his shot here against respectable competition. 7 of his 8 wins have been by stoppage, so he likes to finish, which should guarantee fireworks in this fight.

Prediction: Nicoll By DEC

Kenan Song(21-8) V Ricky Glenn(22-8-2)

Two guys who have been around the UFC square off here with Song and Glenn. Glenn is going up in weight for this fight which we will have to see how he handles fighting a guy who will potentially have the weight advantage once fully rehydrated. Song is a solid fighter who helps clean up the fighters who won’t do anything in the UFC but ultimately loses to contenders. I imagine he will fight smart and should be able to handle Glenn.

Prediction: Song by KO R3

Tom Nolan(7-1) V Alex Reyes(13-4)

To use a professional wrestling term this looks like a squash match. Alex Reyes had a 6 year hiatus before his last fight which he lost by KO in the first. Nolan has power and 4 of his 5 knockouts are in the first round. Nolan should win this convincingly.

Prediction: Nolan by KO R1

Jack Jenkins(12-3) V Herbert Burns(11-5)

Jack Jenkins is back and looking to get back to winning ways after losing to Chepe Mariscal because of an arm injury in the second round. He faces Gilbert Burns’s brother Herbert, who has struggled so far in the UFC. Jenkins is a fun fighter, and someone I think can be a potential contender somewhere down the line if he keeps growing. I hope we see him get back to winning ways in this one. Burns still has good grappling skills, so he could catch Jenkins if he’s too aggressive.

Prediction: Jenkins by KO R3

Casey O’Neill(9-2) V Luana Santos(8-1)

Luana Santos will look to get into the top 15 with a win against current 15th-ranked Casey O’Neill. O’Neill is someone who started strong in the UFC but has lost her last two and will want to get back to winning and climbing up the ranking. Luana Santos has started strong and has two first-round finishes in her three wins in the UFC. Santos likes the ground, which is where O’Neill has struggled with, so you would imagine that will be Santos’s plan of attack.

Prediction: Santos by DEC

Josh Culibao(11-3-1) V Ricardo Ramos(16-6)

This is a great fight. Culibao and Ramos are two fun fighters who on their days can compete fairly competitively with ranked fighters. I like Culibao in this fight for the home advantage and with Ramos losing his last two by first-round guillotine I feel like Culibao will have a plan of attack for this one. Ramos is still considerably young considering how long he’s been around and could easily have a career best performance out of nowhere.

Prediction: Culibao by DEC

Junior Tafa(5-2) V Valter Walker(11-1)

A battle of two people with brothers in the UFC here. Junior Tafa I believe is the more technically gifted sibling in his family but hasn’t started strong in his UFC career but I feel like this is a fight that will test if he has grown enough to stay in the UFC as Walker will be takedown heavy and has a respectable chin. I think Tafa under great coaching could be something in the heavyweight division.

Prediction: Tafa by KO R2

MAIN CARD:

Jingliang Li(19-8) V Carlos Prates(19-6)

My Fighting Nerds boy is in action here against a great opponent. Prates has started strong in the UFC and is getting a good step up in competition with The Leech. Li hasn’t fought since 2022 which may impact his performance as there may be some ring rust. I think Prates will be a contender soon and will do well here but Li is good enough to be able to beat Prates if he’s on his game.

Prediction: Prates by KO R3

Tai Tuivasa(14-7) V Jairzinho Rozenstruik(14-5)

Some ranked heavyweight action here with Tuivasa and Rozenstruik. Tuivasa has been struggling recently losing his last four all by stoppage which is worrying going into this fight. This fight should be both guys throwing till one goes down and I feel that Rozenstruik is in a better flow which I’d favour him for this fight.

Prediction: Rozenstruik by KO R2

Mateusz Gamrot(24-2) V Dan Hooker(23-12)

Good fight here in the lightweight division. This feels like a big test for Hooker, but he is very game and always has a chance. Gamrot is a smart fighter and knows how to win, so I’d favour him here, but I could see this being a fun three-round fight with both guys going for it.

Prediction: Gamrot by Dec

Kai Kara France(24-11) V Steve Erceg(12-2)

This is a great Co-Main for this card with high-ranking flyweights going at it. Kara-France is a perennial contender at flyweight, and a win here could win him a title shot. Erceg is the new kid on the block who has shot up the rankings and had a really competitive title fight with Pantoja earlier this year. I think Erceg is someone who will win the title in the future, and I see him winning here against a great fighter in Kara-France, but I do see this being a fun back-and-forth fight.

Prediction: Erceg by Dec

Dricus Du Plessis(21-2) V Israel Adesanya(24-3)

This is a big-time fight between two big stars for the UFC. I think this fight will go all five rounds and be competitive, and potentially, it will go down to the last round to decide the winner. Adesanya wants his title back and wants to forget about last time out against Strickland. Du Plessis has shocked me with how he’s continued to win fights as it feels like every fight he’s in, you think he will lose at the start, and by the end, he’s won. Du Plessis has a good fight IQ, and his team is good at creating plans for their opponents. I could see it going either way, but I’m leaning toward Du Plessis purely because I feel Adesanya will get too emotional in this one and won’t fight smart.

Prediction: Du Plessis by DEC