UFC 307 Preview and Picks

It’s time for UFC 307 and here is my preview and picks for the event.

PRELIMS:

Tim Means(33-16-1) V Court McGee(21-13)

Cool fight kicking us off here with two MMA and UFC vets. Tim Means has had an interesting career in the UFC. He’s gone through phases of wins and losses, and only two fights ago, he won by finishing Andre Fialho. Court McGee has had a similar run of a solid start, then settled into being furniture for the UFC. He did have a two-fight run a few years back but has lost his last three, so you fear he’s closer to being done than Means. I’d say if the crowd is there early, this could be a fun back-and-forth scrap between two of the old guards.

Prediction: Means by DEC

Carla Esparza(19-7) V Tecia Pennington(13-7)

Carla Esparza makes her return since losing her Strawweight title against constant contender Tecia Pennington. Both haven’t been the most active, with Tecia having fought once since 2022 and losing that fight. Esparza hasn’t fought for a while but has fought better competition and has won a title, which is a big deal. I think Esparza should win this and maybe try for one last run to reclaim the title.

Prediction: Esparza by DEC

Ovince St. Preux(27-17) V Ryan Spann(21-10)

Another few vets of the UFC with OSP and Ryan Spann. Ryan Spann has had a tough few fights, but this is the perfect type of fight for him to get his win back with an aged OSP. St. Preux did win his last one, so maybe there’s a late surge from him in his career, but I feel like Spann will be able to get back in the win column.

Prediction: Spann by KO R2

Ihor Potieria(21-6) V César Almeida(5-1)

Middleweight action here. Potieria has had a funny time in the UFC, with two wins, one of them against a 40-year-old Maurício Rua in his retirement fight. César Almeida is a former kickboxer whos had some success since transitioning to MMA. He lost his last one by split decision to a really good opponent in Roman Kopylov. I’d say Almeida wins fairly simply.

Prediction: Almeida by KO R2

Alexander Hernandez(14-8) V Austin Hubbard(16-7)

interesting lightweight action with Hernandez and Hubbard. Hernandez has had an unfortunate UFC run so far with early signs looking like he could be something but since the Cowboy Cerrone fight it’s been up and down for him. Hubbard on his second run in the UFC. He came back on TUF Season 31 but lost the final but won his last fight after being given another fight in April of this year. I think this is the type of fight that Hubbard will win as Hernandez is not on a confident run, and Hubbard will feel a bit more comfortable after a few fights back with the UFC. It’s possible Hernandez turns it around, but I trust Hubbard more.

Prediction: Hubbard by DEC

Marina Rodriguez(17-4-2) V Iasmin Lucindo(16-5)

Ranked strawweight action with Rodriguez and Lucindo. Rodriguez is a solid fighter who’s had a slight slip recently but is still a contender for the division, and two or three wins could get her back in the title picture. Lucindo is the up-and-coming prospect at only 22 years old. She’s beaten respectable competition recently, and a win here shows she’s the real deal. It’s close, but I think I will go with the experience of Rodriguez with Lucindo, using the loss to inspire her to build. She’s so young that she has the time to work her way back.

Prediction: Rodriguez by DEC

Stephen Thompson(17-7-1) V Joaquin Buckley(19-6)

Ranked Welterweights go at it here with Wonderboy and Buckley. Wonderboy is a universally liked guy, which is rare in MMA, and one of the few to make karate work in MMA. Even though he’s in his 40s now, he can still compete at a high level. Buckley has been on a run and a win against Thompson will show he’s ready to step up into being a proper contender. I do think Buckley has a solid shot here but I also think Wonderboy will know how to win with three rounds and make it hard for Buckley to settle.

Prediction: Wonderboy by DEC

MAIN CARD:

Kayla Harrison(17-1) V Ketlen Vieira(14-3)

Title shot on the line here with Harrison and Vieira. Kayla Harrison is finally in the UFC after dominating PFL for a while. She submitted Holly Holm on her debut, and a win here will get her fighting for the title. Vieira is a solid-ranked fighter but seems to struggle against the top of the division. Maybe this is the time she changes, especially with a title shot on the line. I feel like Harrison will handle this one fairly simply and probably win the title early next year.

Prediction: Harrison by SUB R2

Roman Dolidze(13-3) V Kevin Holland(26-11)

Cool bit of Middleweight action here with Dolidze and Holland. Kevin Holland is back up at Middleweight, and with a win here, you’d expect he’d be ranked. Dolidze is coming into this after competing at 205, which he won. I favour Holland as I think he’s got the range and striking to annoy Dolidze and a respectable enough ground game to be comfortable there. Dolidze will want to make the fight boring and controlling from him as any opening Holland sees he will try.

Prediction: Holland by DEC

José Aldo(32-8) V Mario Bautista(14-2)

Holy banger, this is a fantastic fight. Aldo is one of if not the best fighter to ever compete in MMA and he’s still going strong at 38 years old. Bautista has gone under the radar for most but has been one of the most solid fighters in the division for a few years now. It’s hard to bet against Aldo but a win for Bautista will be the biggest of his career and should make him a real contender in the division.

Prediction: Aldo by DEC

Raquel Pennington(16-8) V Julianna Peña(10-5)

Probably one of the least exciting title fights I’ve ever seen. Pennington has been on a run that has gotten her the title, and she seems to have found her style to beat most of the division. Peña wants her title back, and this is a fight that I think she will win comfortably. Peña isn’t fantastic, but I think compared to the rest of the division and Pennington to a lesser extent, She is a level above them. Either way, I think the winner will get beat by Kayla Harrison sometime next year.

Prediction: Peña by DEC

Alex Pereira(11-2) V Khalil Rountree Jr.(13-5)

This is a really funny title fight, but it’s one I’d rather watch than some of the other matchups for Pereira. We all know how good Pereira is, and he will see this as a fun, striking matchup, but it's one where he’s considered the favourite. Rountree Jr. has grown over his UFC tenure and is on a solid little run, and even though I’d say he most likely gets beat, at least his style is the most interesting to watch as he is strike-heavy and hits hard, which anything is possible in MMA so at least this should be fireworks for however long it goes. I’d still favour Pereira, and who knows, after the fight, maybe Magomed Ankalaev might finally get a shot as long as he beats Rakić later this month.