UFC 309 Picks and Preview

UFC 309 time, so let’s preview the card and make some picks

PRELIMS:

Veronica Hardy(9-4-1) V Eduarda Moura(10-1)

Veronica Hardy is back in the cage, and she’s been looking good recently. After taking a few years off, she came back in 2023 and is on a three-fight win streak and has looked good in them. She faces Eduarda Moura, who’s 1-1 so far in the UFC. She likes to finish fights, with nine finishes in eleven fights, seven of them coming in the first round. This could be fairly fun, but I’ve liked how Hardy’s been looking, so I’ve got her winning here.

Prediction: Hardy by DEC

Oban Elliott(11-2) V Bassil Hafez(9-4-1)

Fun fight here with Oban Elliott and Bassil Hafez. Elliott’s been cool to watch in the UFC so far and has a style that works well being on a card with a crowd. Hafez is similar in the sense that he has a fun style and is tough to break down. I expect this to be a fun three-round scrap, but I think Elliott will fight the smarter fight.

Prediction: Elliott by DEC

Mickey Gall(7-6) V Ramiz Brahimaj(10-5)

Not the best fight next with Mickey Gall and Brahimaj facing off. Gall hasn’t been what the UFC once thought he would be, and as you can tell by his record, he’s been struggling. He’s still good on the ground, so if this fight hits the ground, he might get something. Brahimaj isn’t much better but I feel like he’s more likely to get the win here.

Prediction: Brahimaj by DEC

Marcin Tybura(25-9) V Jhonata Diniz(8-0)

Big test for Jhonata Diniz here with a good name in Marcin Tybura. Diniz was originally going to fight Derrick Lewis a few cards back but now is getting a big PPV bout against a top-10-ranked fighter. We know what Tybura brings, and he’s capable of being able to limit Diniz from striking, but I think Diniz will surprise people and show off his striking against an ageing Tybura.

Prediction: Diniz by KO R2

Roberto Romero(8-3-1) V David Onama(12-2)

I know nothing of Roberto Romero, but he fights David Onama, who is someone I’m a fan of as he’s a great athlete who continues to grow. Romero has shown that he can get an early finish but also stay in a fight and win a decision which is good and might come in handy here but Onama just seems too good of an opponent right now.

Prediction: Onama by KO R2

Jim Miller(37-18) V Damon Jackson(23-7-1)

Jim Miller is back in action and, at 41 years old, is still going strong. He faces Damon Jackson, who’s moving up to lightweight in this one, and I don’t know how well he’ll do at the weight. Both guys are good vets of the sport, but I think Miller will win, as a jump up in weight wasn’t what I thought Jackson needed to do.

Prediction: Miller by DEC

Chris Weidman(16-7) V Eryk Anders(16-8)

Two UFC Vets square off here with Chris Weidman and Eryk Anders back in the cage. Weidman is coming in on a win which was fairly controversial against Bruno Silva but he’s still capable of wrestling his way to a win. Ya Boi Eryk Anders is a fairly consistent middle-of-the-road fighter that beats most of the not high-level fighters in the division but tends to lose to anyone with real skill. This one’s hard to predict as Weidman should be the better fighter, but at 40 after tons of injuries, I can’t say I’m confident in a pick either way.

Prediction: Weidman by DEC

Jonathan Martinez(19-5) V Marcus McGhee(9-1)

This is my favourite fight on the card and the one I think will be the best one to watch on the night. Martinez is one of my favourite fighters and is such a killer in the bantamweight division. He’s coming in after losing to all-time great Jose Aldo, but he will have hopefully learned from that experience and will want to show he is at that level. Marcus McGhee has been fun to watch since entering the UFC and has looked really good with three finishes in his three fights in the UFC. I like both guys and think McGhee will be up in the rankings eventually, but I think Martinez will show his level in this one and get back to winning.

Prediction: Martinez by DEC

MAIN CARD:

Mauricio Ruffy(10-1) V James Llontop(14-4)

Another Fighting Nerd is back fighting. Ruffy is a very fun fighter who, in only one bout in the UFC, showed that he might be the real deal like most of his fellow Fighting Nerds. Llontop is 0-2 and hasn’t impressed me much, so I see this as a fun opener to the main but a big performance from Ruffy.

Prediction: Ruffy by KO R1

Karine Silva(18-4) v Viviane Araujo(12-6)

Ranked women’s flyweight action here with a fun fighter, Karine Silva, in the mix. Silva is a fighter I like to watch as she likes to finish and tends to do it early. Araujo is solid but has been mixed recently, and I fear that a proper challenger in Silva might be too much for her.

Prediction: Silva by DEC

Bo Nickal(6-0) V Paul Craig(17-8-1)

It's a big test for Bo Nickal here. Nickal has been pretty good so far since transitioning to MMA. He has shown improvement in his striking and has a solid submission game. Paul Craig is a threat, especially if a fight hits the ground, and he is the perfect type of fighter to stop a hype train. I still think Nickal wins, as he does have some power. On the ground, he likes it, too, so he feels heavily favoured in his court.

Prediction: Nickal by KO R2

Charles Oliveira(34-10) V Michael Chandler(23-8)

Do Bronx is back and will be looking to get back to winning ways here. We all know how good Oliveira is, and I think after losing his last one to Arman Tsarukyan, he will want to impress again and get back in the win column. He faces a former opponent, Michael Chandler. Chandler has been wanting to fight McGregor for a while and has wasted a lot of time hoping the fight would happen. As expected, it didn’t, and now he fights one of the best lightweights in the world. I feel like, just like the first fight, Oliveira wins but is a bit more dominant than the first one.

Prediction: Oliveira by SUB R3

Jon Jones(27-1) V Stipe Miocic(20-4)

The return of Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic happens in the main event of UFC 309. Jones has spent the entire build-up to this fight talking about how he doesn’t want to fight the actual champ in Tom Aspinall and barely talking about Miocic. Miocic is fighting for the first time since 2021, when Francis Ngannou destroyed him. I feel like this is a clear setup for Jones to win, and all I can hope is that Stipe at least looks alright and that Jones has to fight Aspinall after, or else this is just disappointing.

Prediction: Jones by KO R4