UFC 311 Picks and Preview
UFC 311 is a stacked card, so let’s make some picks and see where that takes us.
PRELIMS:
Tagir Ulanbekov(15-2) v Clayton Carpenter(8-0)
Really fun fight to kick the card off here at Flyweight. Ulanbekov makes his return after over a year off since his last fight. Ulanbekov is a very solid fighter who knows how to do just enough to win fights, which is one of the best abilities to have in MMA. Carpenter is on the up and has looked good in his fights in the UFC. This is a great test for Carpenter, but I think Ulanbekov knows what to do, so unless Carpenter gets a finish, I think Ulanbekov takes the decision.
Prediction: Ulanbekov by DEC
Ricky Turcios(12-4) v Benardo Sopaj(11-3)
Interesting one here with Turcios and Sopaj. Turcios is an annoying fighter to watch from a Fight IQ point of view. He’s got ability but he makes some silly decisions. Sopaj has had one fight, and it was against Vinicius Oliveira, where he lost by a scary KO. I do think he will do well here and won’t need to worry about the KO threat.
Prediction: Sopaj by DEC
Rinya Nakamura(9-0) v Muin Gafurov(19-6)
Cool little fight at 135. Nakamura is a fun prospect from Japan with the potential to be a star for the UFC in the Asian market. He is very strong on the ground and has some solid power in his hands. Gafurov is solid and has been unfortunate with the names he’s fought in the UFC, with John Castañeda and Said Nurmagomedov being his first two fights, which are very tough fights. He won his last one, so he’s coming in on a win. It should be fun, but I think Nakamura takes it.
Prediction: Nakamura by DEC
Karol Rosa(18-6) v Ailín Pérez(11-2)
Ailín Pérez fights here, which means it should be funny. Her opponent, Karol Rosa, is a bit of a gatekeeper for the division, beating most but struggling against the better fighters in the division. Pérez is on a good run, and I think she will take it here as she’s firing well.
Prediction: Pérez by DEC
Zach Reese(8-1) v Azamat Bekoev(18-3)
Short notice fight here with Azamat Bekoev making his UFC debut to step in to keep Zach Reese on the card. Reese is massive and rangy, which is hard to deal with unless you are prepared. Reese likes to finish, and usually in the first round, so I imagine he will go fast and try to finish early. Bekoev is the LFA Middleweight champion and has shown some real skill in his fights. I think he shocks Reese here and gets the win, as I think he’s good, and as long as he lasts the first, he can take over.
Prediction: Bekoev by DEC
Grant Dawson(22-2-1) v Diego Ferreira(19-5)
Very good Lightweight fight here with two guys who are skilled. Dawson is a strong fighter who was on a run until losing to Bobby Green but is back on form, and if he can handle this fight, then you imagine he goes for a ranking. Ferreira, at 40 years old, is slowing down but can still compete, and he’s won his last two by finish, which is very impressive. This should be a great fight, but I think Dawson should be the favourite.
Prediction: Dawson by DEC
Bogdan Guskov(16-3) v Billy Elekana(7-1)
Another short-notice fight, this time at Light Heavyweight. Billy Elekana steps in to keep Guskov on the card. I don’t know much about him, but he’s had a few fights in PFL and LFA, so you never know he might shock some people. Guskov is a kill-or-be-killed fighter who likes to throw fast and hard, which, when it works, is brilliant, but it means he’s open for counters. I think it’s Guskov’s to lose, and I expect a finish.
Prediction: Guskov by KO R1
Jailton Almeida(21-3) v Serghei Spivac(17-4)
Top 10 ranked fight here at Heavyweight with Almeida and Spivac. Almeida, to me, is still just a big Light Heavyweight, but because he’s athletic and talented, he beats most Heavyweights. Spivac is solid and might shock Almeida, especially with this fight. I think heading to the ground, he might get something, but I’d say Almeida is the favourite here.
Prediction: Almeida by SUB R2
Payton Talbott(9-0) v Raoni Barcelos(18-5)
Payton Talbott returns, and he faces a great fighter in Raoni Barcelos. Talbott is a potential star who is very fun to watch, and Barcelos is a great opponent for him right now to see if he’s ready for the step up. I talked about Talbott in a Fighter Study which you can check here: https://fightstudy.substack.com/p/fight-study-payton-talbott. Barcelos is a great fighter who, even though he’s getting older and slowing down he is very much still a good opponent and can easily compete with Talbott, so Talbott will need to be on form.
Preview: Talbott by KO R3
MAIN CARD:
Kevin Holland(26-12) v Reinier De Ridder(18-2)
Middleweight action starts the main card with some fun fighters. Kevin Holland is a strong fighter who can compete with most, especially at Middleweight, with his frame and reach. Reinier De Ridder recently made the jump over to the UFC after being a long-time ONE Championship champion, but after some bad blood with the company, he left. The UFC is a good place for him to be, especially at Middleweight, which is more his natural weight class than being at Light Heavyweight over at ONE. This one is close in my eyes as Holland, if he keeps it on the feet, will control the fight, but if this fight touches the ground, it’s De Ridder for the win. I think it’s more likely the fight goes to the ground and De Ridder gets the sub.
Prediction: De Ridder by SUB R3
Beneil Dariush(22-6-1) v Renato Moicano(20-5-1)
A fun one at lightweight with the old 35-year-old vet in Beneil Dariush vs. the up-and-coming 35-year-old Renato Moicano. In all seriousness, both guys are very good and both at difference stages of their career despite being the same age. Dariush seems to be slowing down, which in a division like Lightweight usually means you are near the end. Moicano has always shown skills but recently has been able to show a proper display of mixing the martial arts, and because he’s been around a while, he’s a more mature fighter than he was when he was coming up. I think Moicano takes this as he seems to be finally hitting his prime, whereas Dariush is slowing down, but it is still a very competitive fight.
Prediction: Moicano by DEC
Jiří Procházka(30-5-1) v Jamahal Hill(12-2)
A warrior sacrifice takes place here as Jiří Procházka looks to shut Jamahal Hill up. This is a big fight for the division, but in my eye, it's weirdly easy for me to predict which I can’t tell if it’s me overrating Jiří or really not liking Hill because of his whole personality. I think Hill is a good fighter, but his attitude hasn’t shown me any reason to believe he has actively tried to improve or learn from his loss, whereas Jiří always seems ready to learn. Procházka is wild, so he can be caught, which Hill will look for, but I think Jiří takes it.
Prediction: Procházka by KO R2
Merab Dvalishvili(18-4) v Umar Nurmagomedov(18-0)
First title fight and co-main of the card with my boi Merab looking to get his first title defence under his belt. Merab is probably one of the few people in my about a decade now of watching MMA that I noticed early through Dana White: Looking for a Fight, and since then, I felt he was skilled and saw him go through his early UFC run with adversity but found his form and has looked incredible since. I think his best asset is his gas tank as, of course, he’s a great wrestler and a solid enough striker, but it’s his ability to keep up an otherworldly pace that does the real damage against some of the best fighters we’ve seen. Umar has really surprised me lately. I thought he was good, but his performance against Sandhagen made me realise he is ready to compete at the top of the division. I think this fight is very close, and I understand the people who pick Nurmagomedov, but I can not pick my boi Merab.
Prediction: Merab by DEC
Islam Makhachev(26-1) v Arman Tsarukyan(22-3)
A rematch over five years in the making as Arman Tsarukyan will look to right the wrong of his first loss in the UFC against the now champion and current P4P best in the world, Islam Makhachev. This fight will be phenomenal. Both guys have really grown since the first fight and are probably both in their primes, respectively, so we should expect some real high-level fighting. Makhachev is hard to bet against, as he has grown to such a level that he almost looks impossible to beat. Arman Tsarukyan is an interesting challenger, as their first fight was very back-and-forth and very impressive for a 22-year-old at the time. I think Arman has the ability to be Islam’s toughest test and potentially beat him, but he would have to be on such form that I guess is possible but Islam winning is the more believable option in my head but I do think the fight should be a fun close affair.
Prediction: Makhachev by DEC