UFC Saudi Arabia Predictions

With UFC Saudi Arabia tomorrow, I decided to give you my predictions of the card as well as highlight the fights I’m looking forward to.

PRELIMS

Long Xiao(26-8) v Chang Ho Lee(9-1)

This is the road to the UFC tournament final. Xiao Long is an experienced fighter for only 26 years old. He has shown that he can deal with damage well and can continue to pressure his opponent into making mistakes. In his fight against Shohei Nose, he was able to survive Nose’s constant takedowns and grappling, as Nose is a very good submission artist. His Opponent, Chang Ho Lee, won his two fights by ground and pound on his way to the final. Lee likes to be aggressive and bring the fight to the ground to ground and pound to a finish. One thing I like about Lee is he has proven he can finish his fights whereas Xiao hasn’t shown finishing ability in his fights to the final.

Prediction: Lee by Decision

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov(8-0) v Brendson Ribeiro(15-6)

Magomed fought Jose Medina in a fun fight on the contender series, but it was a very one-sided fight, with Magomed showing a nice striking game. Ribeiro lost his last fight to Mingyang Zhang via knockout and is a hit-or-be-hit type of fighter. If Magomed can not get caught early, I think he will coast to a win easily, whether it’s a decision or a finish.

Prediction: Gadzhiyasulov by KO R3

Muin Gafurov(18-6) v Kyung Ho Kang(19-10)

Gafurov has had a tough start in the UFC, facing two good guys in Said Nurmagomedov and John Castañeda, but before the UFC, he had shown he is an explosive fighter who likes to finish fights early, with 14 of his wins being in the first round. His Opponent, Kyung Ho Kang, has been in the UFC for a while, and he's a solid fighter who will beat you if you are aren’t on your game. He is coming in off a loss to a former opponent of Gafurov in John Castañeda and will look to get back to winning ways in this one.

Prediction: Gafurov by KO R1

Rinat Fakhretdinov(22-2-1) v Nicolas Dalby(23-4-1)

This is a fight I’m looking forward to, with both guys being very solid fighters. Rinat has been impressive in his UFC career so far, with a dominating win against Bryan Battle and a submission win against Kevin Lee in under a minute. His last fight was a draw against Elizeu Zaleski in which Rinat was very aggressive early and completely gassed. His Opponent Dalby is a very good all-round fighter. His biggest asset, especially for this fight, is his conditioning. He has shown he can outlast you, and against Rinat, that may be how he wins by outlasting early pressure from Rinat.

Prediction: Fakhretdinov by Decision

Muhammad Naimov(11-2) v Felipe Lima(12-1)

Naimov hasn’t impressed me in his UFC career yet, even though he is 3-0. I felt he lost to Nathaniel Wood on top of him cheating multiple times in that fight. He does have power, so a finish is possible. His opponent is Oktagon Bantamweight Champion Felipe Lima, who is coming in on short notice. He will be coming up a weight class, so it’s very likely he will lose purely on the disadvantages alone, but I do believe he can win as he is a capable fighter, and Naimov has not impressed me so far.

Prediction: Lima by Decision

Nasrat Haqparast(16-5) v Jared Gordon(20-6)

This should be a fun scrap between two solid fighters in the lightweight division. Nasrat is still quite young and on a solid streak, which he will look to continue in this fight. Jared Gordon is a veteran of MMA and a fighter I enjoy. He is very capable of winning this fight, but I fear that Haqparast has the power and has been looking good recently.

Prediction: Haqparast by Decision

Johnny Walker(21-8) v Volkan Oezdemir(19-7)

This could be a hilarious fight, depending on whether Walker is on form. Walker is such an enigma for the Light Heavyweight division as he is very wacky with his striking, yet he can knock out most guys. Oezdemir is a solid all-rounder who can win this fight by boring Walker, making him angsty and using that to his advantage.

Prediction: Walker by KO R2

Shara Magomedov(12-0) v Antonio Trócoli(12-3)

Shara has the potential to be a big star for the UFC. He has fun striking and likes to finish fights. His opponent, Trócoli, is coming in on short notice and has not fought for nearly 3 years. This feels like a gimme for Magomedov to win impressively.

Prediction: Magomedov by R2

Kelvin Gastelum(18-9) v Daniel Rodriguez(17-4)

This fight is now happening at middleweight after Gastelum seemed to struggle to make 170 again and has moved the fight up a division, so fair play to Rodriguez for taking it. Gastelum lost his last fight, but with the extra fifteen pounds, I have him as the favourite. Rodriguez is an alright fighter and is coming in off two losses so he will want to win and probably with a finish in this one. I feel bad for Rodriguez that its at middleweight now as now you would imagine Gastelum is the favourite with him having to cut less weight.

Prediction: Gastelum by Decision

Sergei Pavlovich(18-2) v Alexander Volkov(37-10)

This should be a solid scrap at heavyweight between Pavlovich and Volkov. Pavlovich has crazy power, and even with Volkov being taller, Pavlovich has a longer reach. Volkov is a very good fighter and could easily win by using his kicks. I could see this fight being similar to the Derrick Lewis fight for Volkov, with Volkov winning and Pavlovich landing big late, but I also think he will be more competitive than Lewis was in that fight.

Prediction: Pavlovich by KO R2

Robert Whittaker(25-7) v Ikram Aliskerov(15-1)

This has the potential to be a great scrap between these guys. Whittaker is one of the best middleweights of all time and is still very good. Whittaker beat Costa last time out, and even though he’s fighting someone on short notice, a win here probably puts him in title contention again. I talked about Ikram in my fight study of him, which you can read here:https://fightstudy.substack.com/p/fight-study-ikram-aliskerov. I think Ikram has a solid chance of surprising Whittaker with his wrestling, and his ability to finish fights has impressed me if he finds an opening, he will take advantage of it.

Prediction: Whittaker by Decision

These have been my predictions. Let me know who you think wins in the comments.